Wednesday, September 13, 2006

Insightful? Depends on what you mean by insightful, and if you're Larry Sabato.

I love some of this "analysis." Here's Amy Walter, House analyst for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report newsletter:

"I don't think the question any longer is can Democrats win control of Congress, it's can Republicans do anything to stop it?" she said.

Well...that's actually the same question phrased a different way, Amy, because if the answer to "can Republicans do anything to stop it" is YES, then the answer to "can Democrats win control of Congress" is NO. Those questions aren't independent...

"It's too late to fix the national mood -- it's not going to be fixed," said Republican pollster Frank Luntz. "The major issues are not playing well for Republicans this year, and Republicans are not playing well with America this year."

I actually think that the major issues ARE playing well for Republicans, and that Republicans ARE playing well with America this year...almost no one is predicting that Democrats will actually take control of the House or Senate, let alone House AND Senate, so at least half the country, despite any misgivings about the issues, are okay with Republicans. Republicans continue to successfully hammer Democrats about security in the eyes of the voters, and somehow, Donald Rumsfeld is still secretary of defense.

And then there's the ubiquitous Larry Sabato:

"This looks like a classic sixth-year election," said University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato, who called the president's low approval ratings, hovering at about 40 percent, "the single best indicator for any mid-term election."

Classic, eh? Turns out that the last exception to the opposition party gaining seats was...1998...the last time there WAS a sixth-year election...

Anyone have any analysis of their own?


At 1:26 PM, Blogger RedHurt said...

It's also true that roughly half the population is below average. My Dad loves pointing this out, and it's one of those timeless truths we all ought ponder for a while in light of this new evidence.

At 3:30 PM, Blogger J. Morgan Caler said...

I took a walk on my lunch break and punch Sabato in the face then told him to return his mustache to the 1980s gay man from whom he stole it forthwith.


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